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29 Temmuz 2017 Cumartesi

Unit root and nonstationarity in stochastic process

There is a unique case where a regression of a nonstationary series on another nonstationary series does not result in spurious regression. This is the situation of cointegration. If two time series have stochastic trends (i.e. they are nonstationary), a regression of one on the other may cancel out the stochastic trends, which may suggest that there is a long-run, or equilibrium, relationship, between them, even though individually the two series are nonstationary.

Keep in mind that unit root and nonstationarity are not synonymous. A stochastic process with a deterministic trend is nonstationary but not unit root[1].





[1] Source: Domador Gujarati Econometrics by Examples p-236

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