It is important to point out some
drawbacks of the EG approach. First, if you have more than three variables,
there might be more than one cointegrating relationship. The EG two step
procedure does not allow for estimation of more than one cointegrating
regression. It may be noted here that if we are dealing with n variables,there
can be at most (n – 1) cointegrating relationships. To find that out, we will
have to use tests developed by Johansen.
Another problem with the EG test is the order
in which variables enter the cointegrating regression. When we have more
than two variables, how do we decide which is the regressand and which
ones are the regressors? For example, if we have three variables Y, X, and
Z and suppose we regress Y on X and Z and find cointegration. There is no
guarantee that if we regress X on Y and Z we will necessarily find
cointegration.
Another problem with the EG methodology in
dealing with multiple time series is that we not only have to consider finding
more than one cointegrating relationship, but then we will also have to deal
with the error correction term for each cointegrating relationship. As a
result, the simple, or bivariate, error correction model will not work. We have
to then consider what is known as the vector error correction model (VECM).
All these problems can be handled if
we use the Johansen methodology[1].
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